La Niña's Return: What NOAA's Winter Weather Forecast Predicts for Warmer South and Wetter North

 

Federal forecasters are predicting the formation of a La Niña climate pattern in the coming months, according to a report released Thursday. This gives a glimpse of what the weather across the U.S. could look like this winter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reports a 60% chance of La Niña emerging by the end of November. La Niña, which brings cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific, typically results in warmer, drier conditions in the southern U.S. and cooler, wetter weather in the northern regions.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for cooler-than-average conditions will be in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. 

NOAA

This year’s La Niña is expected to be weaker and shorter in duration compared to previous years, which makes long-term forecasts challenging. However, forecasters have already outlined some key predictions for the season.

Large portions of the South and East Coast, including Texas and Gulf Coast states such as Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi, are expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures. Meanwhile, cooler-than-normal conditions are likely in the Pacific Northwest and northern High Plains, affecting states like Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and the Dakotas.

Wetter-than-average conditions could hit the Pacific Northwest and parts of Montana and Wyoming, with the Great Lakes region—including Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky—also facing increased rainfall probabilities. In contrast, states along the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, and southern New Mexico may experience drier-than-average conditions this winter.

Additionally, NOAA anticipates ongoing drought across much of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains, with conditions likely to worsen in the Southwest and Gulf Coast. However, drought conditions could improve or even end in areas like the Ohio River Valley, the Great Lakes region, and parts of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.